KBT Market Research

Consumer Price Index (BLS) — the change in prices consumers pay at retail. "Core" excludes food & energy; headline includes them. The inflation number most people quote.

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Core PCE

Personal Consumption Expenditures (BEA) — a broader price measure that adjusts for substitution. The Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% target. "Core" excludes food & energy.

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Core PPI

Producer Price Index (BLS) — wholesale prices producers receive, before goods reach consumers. Often a leading indicator for CPI/PCE. "Core" excludes food & energy.

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YoY, trailing 12 prints · solid = core (ex food & energy)

Treasury Yield Curve

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Fed Funds vs. 2-Year Treasury

The 2-Year yield is the market's forecast of the average fed funds rate ahead. When it falls below the policy rate, the market is pricing cuts; when it sits above, it's pricing hikes. The 2Y typically turns before the Fed does.

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S&P 500 Valuation

P/E (trailing)Price ÷ trailing-12-month earnings for the S&P 500 index — what you pay for each $1 of the index’s actual profits. Higher = more expensive. The bar plots today against the last 30 years (10th–90th percentile; the tick marks the historical median). A high percentile means stocks are historically pricey. On its own, P/E ignores how fast earnings are growing. Source: multpl (Shiller data).—

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Trailing PEGP/E ÷ earnings growth — valuation put in the context of growth, so a high P/E can still be reasonable if profits are growing fast. This is a TRAILING PEG: trailing P/E divided by realized year-over-year earnings growth (forward analyst estimates aren’t available free over history). ~1.0 is the classic “fairly valued for its growth” mark; under 1 is cheap for the growth, over ~2 is rich. It’s undefined during earnings recessions (growth ≤ 0), so those months are excluded.—

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Earnings Growth (YoY)Growth in the S&P 500’s trailing-12-month earnings versus a year ago — realized, not forecast. Faster growth helps justify a higher P/E. The bar shows today against the last 30 years; a high percentile means earnings are growing unusually fast. Very volatile — it swings hard around recessions. Source: multpl.—

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EBITDA MarginMarket-cap-weighted EBITDA margin (EBITDA ÷ revenue) across the S&P 500’s current constituents — operating profitability before interest, taxes, and non-cash charges. Unlike the others this is a current snapshot only: no historical index-level series exists, so there’s no percentile or range. Higher, expanding margins support richer valuations.—cap-wtd · current only

Bars show today vs the 30-year range (10th–90th percentile, median tick). Marker color: red = historically high, green = low.

Markets

Core Inflation

Treasury Yield Curve

Fed Funds vs. 2-Year Treasury

S&P 500 Valuation

S&P 500 Momentum & Breadth

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